[...] if the eurozone were to disband, the main losers would be Germany, Austria, and in, even greater proportion, the European tax havens (Lux- embourg, Netherlands), who would see the deterioration of their agents’ balance sheets. In such a scenario, Portugal and above all Greece would see a boom in their public debt. This would necessarily have to lead to a — in any case desirable — restructuring process.
However, beyond that, the financial and nonfinancial private sectors of each of these two economies, and the rest of the countries taken as a whole, would see their position improve. In other words, the expressions of financial fragility would be concentrated at the very points where there exist situations in dire need of resolving – i.e., the public debt of peripheral countries in need of relief, and tax havens — and within those countries whose financial situation is sufficiently robust that slight damage to certain sectors’ financial balance sheet could be absorbed without any major shock.