[...] if the eurozone were to disband, the main losers would be Germany,
Austria, and in, even greater proportion, the European tax havens (Lux-
embourg, Netherlands), who would see the deterioration of their agents’
balance sheets. In such a scenario, Portugal and above all Greece would see
a boom in their public debt. This would necessarily have to lead to a — in
any case desirable — restructuring process.

However, beyond that, the financial and nonfinancial private sectors
of each of these two economies, and the rest of the countries taken as a
whole, would see their position improve. In other words, the expressions
of financial fragility would be concentrated at the very points where there
exist situations in dire need of resolving – i.e., the public debt of peripheral
countries in need of relief, and tax havens — and within those countries
whose financial situation is sufficiently robust that slight damage to certain
sectors’ financial balance sheet could be absorbed without any major shock.