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181

Vacation Plans

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Memories of Rome—Crime and punishment—150 Years—Things looking up, for Wall St.—Long-Term Capital Management (or, what happens to failed HFMs)—The end of investment banks as we know them (July 2, 2009)

Gessen, K. (2010). Vacation Plans. In Gessen, K. Diary of a Very Bad Year: Confessions of an Anonymous Hedge Fund Manager. Harper Perennial, pp. 181-208

184

That the level of profits for the financial sector was too high. If you look sectorially, the financial sector was generating an unusually large share of corporate profits and of GDP. And a lot of that was not sustainable. It was a frenzy of trading that didn’t lead to an ultimately productive result. So those are paper profits. And what happened is it turns out that those loans that were extended went bad, or bets went bad, and the huge losses that were recognized were the reversal of those financial sector profits, right? So again, then are you supposed to believe that once that’s out the financial sector profits go back to that unsustainably high level? No, they don’t.

Another way of saying that is that a lot of that GDP is an illusion.

finally we agree on something

—p.184 by Keith Gessen 5 years, 9 months ago

That the level of profits for the financial sector was too high. If you look sectorially, the financial sector was generating an unusually large share of corporate profits and of GDP. And a lot of that was not sustainable. It was a frenzy of trading that didn’t lead to an ultimately productive result. So those are paper profits. And what happened is it turns out that those loans that were extended went bad, or bets went bad, and the huge losses that were recognized were the reversal of those financial sector profits, right? So again, then are you supposed to believe that once that’s out the financial sector profits go back to that unsustainably high level? No, they don’t.

Another way of saying that is that a lot of that GDP is an illusion.

finally we agree on something

—p.184 by Keith Gessen 5 years, 9 months ago
195

[...] You see people who’ve blown up in spectacular fashion go on to get another high-profile job. And the things you hear are, “I want to hire him; he’s learned a very expensive lesson.” Or “He’s proved he’s a risk-taker.” I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard that! Yeah, he’s proved he’s an irrational, crazy risk-taker!

this is like identical for tech people who've "landed the ship". think danielle morill ... makes me want to barf every time i think about it

—p.195 by Keith Gessen 5 years, 9 months ago

[...] You see people who’ve blown up in spectacular fashion go on to get another high-profile job. And the things you hear are, “I want to hire him; he’s learned a very expensive lesson.” Or “He’s proved he’s a risk-taker.” I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard that! Yeah, he’s proved he’s an irrational, crazy risk-taker!

this is like identical for tech people who've "landed the ship". think danielle morill ... makes me want to barf every time i think about it

—p.195 by Keith Gessen 5 years, 9 months ago