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25

The Death of Bear

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At the office—Run on Bear—Argentina—Night thoughts of an HFM—Zombie banks—Florida (March 26, 2008)

Gessen, K. (2010). The Death of Bear. In Gessen, K. Diary of a Very Bad Year: Confessions of an Anonymous Hedge Fund Manager. Harper Perennial, pp. 25-48

43

Today, where people have made bad investment decisions, where people built houses they never should have built, there’s a misallocation of resources. The loss has already happened. The loss isn’t what happens on a balance sheet; the loss is what happens when someone cuts down a tree, makes cement, builds a 6,000-square-foot house in a place it should never be built. So the loss has already happened. The question is, how do you allocate that loss? And if you don’t allocate the loss, if you pretend it isn’t there, then this has really baleful consequences for the economy. So what we’re going through now is this process of loss allocation. It can be done swiftly, fairly, and intelligently, or it can be done slowly, and messily, and inefficiently, and also it can be not done at all. If it’s happened, the best is to deal with it swiftly and fairly. And when the shareholders get hurt really badly and the banks have to recapitalize at punitive levels, or get taken over $2 a share, I think it’s fair—the banks made bad decisions, the equity holders are the prime beneficiaries of the activities the bank is undertaking. When things go poorly, they should be the primary bearers of the loss. I think that’s good.

think about this in the context of startup valuations or sales or whatever (or when it turns out a startup has a fraudulent product). the loss has already happened, but in private; the financial stuff in the news is just accounting

—p.43 missing author 5 years, 11 months ago

Today, where people have made bad investment decisions, where people built houses they never should have built, there’s a misallocation of resources. The loss has already happened. The loss isn’t what happens on a balance sheet; the loss is what happens when someone cuts down a tree, makes cement, builds a 6,000-square-foot house in a place it should never be built. So the loss has already happened. The question is, how do you allocate that loss? And if you don’t allocate the loss, if you pretend it isn’t there, then this has really baleful consequences for the economy. So what we’re going through now is this process of loss allocation. It can be done swiftly, fairly, and intelligently, or it can be done slowly, and messily, and inefficiently, and also it can be not done at all. If it’s happened, the best is to deal with it swiftly and fairly. And when the shareholders get hurt really badly and the banks have to recapitalize at punitive levels, or get taken over $2 a share, I think it’s fair—the banks made bad decisions, the equity holders are the prime beneficiaries of the activities the bank is undertaking. When things go poorly, they should be the primary bearers of the loss. I think that’s good.

think about this in the context of startup valuations or sales or whatever (or when it turns out a startup has a fraudulent product). the loss has already happened, but in private; the financial stuff in the news is just accounting

—p.43 missing author 5 years, 11 months ago